JEDDAH — The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and the Climate Change Center (CCC) said indicators point to a growing likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop and persist through the end of 2026 and into early 2027, bringing warmer temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns across Saudi Arabia. The agencies said Saudi Arabia is currently in a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the Niño 3.4 Index standing at +0.39°C as of July 5. Forecast models indicate a high probability that El Niño will develop, with the index expected to exceed +0.8°C and reach around +1.25°C, with the possibility of strengthening into a strong El Niño. Forecasts also indicate the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly will continue to rise, increasing from +1.1°C in May to +2.8°C by October. Western Saudi Arabia is also expected to see an increased likelihood of rainfall and a higher risk of flash floods during the autumn season, while parts of central Saudi Arabia could receive rainfall during the 2026-2027 winter season. The southwestern highlands may also experience above-average rainfall next spring. The agencies also forecast above-average temperatures across the Kingdom, with higher daytime and nighttime temperatures, more frequent heatwaves during the summer and autumn, and a warmer winterthan normal with a lower likelihood of extreme cold waves.
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