DUBAI — Iran is facing mounting fuel shortages as the US squeezes its access to imports, stretching supplies of a commodity that previously sparked bouts of unrest in the country.Lines have grown outside gas stations across Tehran in recent weeks as the United States has tightened its blockade and threatened more severe sanctions, with some people waiting two hours or more to fill up.The state-run Hamshahri newspaper reported long queues at petrol stations in Tehran because of fears of price hikes, with many drivers filling up tanks before they are even half empty.In recent days, Iranian officials have spoken of a possible reduction in heavy gas subsidies as they seek to endure the tightening blockade.A top official in charge of domestic energy supply said the gasoline market had a daily deficit of 14-15 million liters due to record demand, war damage and “changes in the national budget’s priorities.”“We have to do something to bring consumption down to domestic production levels,” Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani, head of the Energy Optimization and Strategic Management Organization, said last week, according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.The uncertainty deepened on Tuesday, after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to sever the country fully from the global economy. The latest US measures are aimed at wringing concessions from the Islamic Republic nearly six months into the war launched by President Donald Trump and Israel. The war has already battered Iran’s economy and inflicted mounting pain on ordinary people. But there’s no sign yet that it has brought Iran’s leaders to their knees, or that it will reignite the anti-government protests that convulsed the country in January.The lines had been growing longer well before Bessent’s announcement, amid shortages caused by the American blockade and existing sanctions. And with double-digit inflation and the rial at a record low, Iranians are struggling to afford more than just fuel.There were no such lineups outside banks, and grocery stores and pharmacies are still well-stocked, but customers complained about not being able to afford. “Some of our regular customers buy now and pay later, since their pockets are not as full as before,” said Morteza Daryani, who runs a grocery store in Tehran.Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the US of resorting to economic pressure after failing to defeat Iran militarily. He said it was trying to create “social problems and economic dissatisfaction in order to throw Iran into chaos.”“Should we bow down to the problems and surrender? Absolutely not,” he was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars and Tasnim news agencies.There are no signs yet that the economic discontent has translated into protests in Iran, where authorities violently crushed demonstrations at the start of the year, killing thousands.Iran has been under heavy international sanctions for decades due to its nuclear program and support for armed groups. Oil sales to China have long provided a lifeline, and it’s unclear if the US can cut them off.Still, there are “always limits to resistance and resilience,” said Mohammad Farzanegan, a professor of Middle Eastern economics at the University of Marburg in Germany.“People are losing their purchasing power every day,” he said. “All of this, combined with worsening diplomatic prospects and the psychological burden of mounting pressures, could push frustration to a point where it can no longer be effectively managed by the state.”Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, who heads the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a think tank focused on Iran’s economy, said the sectors that Bessent threatened to target “are not lifelines for the Iranian state, they are lifelines for the Iranian people.”In an analysis posted on X, Batmanghelidj said digital assets and gold are how Iranians protect their savings, technology keeps them connected with the world, aviation allows them to travel, and shipping is how food and medicine reach Iran.Any fuel shortages will test Iran’s ability to keep the economy moving as the US launches what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described on Monday as “the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary.” Gasoline prices are a highly sensitive issue in oil-rich Iran, where state subsidies mean consumers benefit from some of the cheapest petrol in the world. Iranian officials have been warning the public for months that price hikes may be inevitable because Israeli and US strikes on fuel storage sites and other energy facilities have compounded a longstanding supply-demand imbalance. President Pezeshkian appealed to the public for support as far back as May, as he mooted the possibility of rationing and urged people to use public transport where possible. But the warnings don’t appear to have worked. Last week, Iran’s parliament speaker and lead negotiator in the war, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US and Israel planned to exploit any rise in gasoline prices as part of their military operations against the Islamic Republic. At the moment, the most effective economic pressure has come from the US naval blockade.But last week’s announcement from the United Arab Emirates that it was cutting off all trade and financial transactions with Iran could have longer-term effects if the country follows through, said Sascha Bruchmann, an analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies’ Middle East office in Bahrain.Bessent, who on Monday threatened secondary American sanctions on countries doing business with Iran, suggested it was pressure from Washington that led the UAE to its decision.“Actions that they took last week were not coincidental but likely causal, and I would expect that we would see a broad array of countries taking similar actions as we continue our engagement,” Bessent said.Iran is exerting pressure of its own by largely closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carried a fifth of the world’s oil and gas before the war. It’s betting that the impact on the global economy — and US gas prices ahead of midterm elections — will force Trump to back down.“Trump is betting that their time runs out first due to the naval blockade,” Bruchmann said. “Both clocks are ticking, and no one knows which clock is right.”
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