RIYADH — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2027 to 7.9 percent, up from its previous projection of 5.5 percent issued last July, marking an increase of 2.4 percentage points, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report.In its report, the IMF revised its forecast for the Kingdom’s economy in 2026 to a contraction of 3.3 percent, compared with its previous forecast of growth of 1.7 percent. The IMF affirmed that the Saudi economy is more resilient to geopolitical instability than some other economies in the region, thanks to its diversified energy export routes, which help mitigate the impact of supply chain and transportation disruptions. The report also projected that the Kingdom’s inflation rate would decline to 1.9 percent this year, compared with 2 percent in 2025, before rising to 2.2 percent in 2027. It further anticipated an improvement in regional economic activity in 2027, coinciding with the resumption of production, exports, and logistics services at their normal levels.The IMF expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1percent in 2026, compared with 3.5 percent in 2025, before accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2027, amid the continued fallout from disruptions in energy markets.The report noted that tensions and disruptions affecting global trade and supply chains pose a challenge to the growth outlook. However, improving conditions and the normalization of transportation and supply flows are expected to support economic activity in 2027. It is noteworthy that the Saudi Ministry of Finance had projected in the preliminary statement for the 2027 budget that the Kingdom’s real GDP would grow by 12.8 percent in the coming year and by 3.9 percent in 2028. The ministry expects revenues for the current year to reach SR1.19 trillion and expenditures SR1.43 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SR245 billion.
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