The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 7.9% in 2027, up from its previous forecast of 5.5% issued last July.
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF revised its forecast for the Kingdom’s economy in 2026 to a contraction of 3.3%, compared with its previous forecast of growth of 1.7%.
The report noted that the Saudi economy is less affected than some regional economies by geopolitical disruptions, thanks to diversified energy export routes, which limit the impact of supply and transportation disruptions.
IMF Forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s GDP Growth (%)
Period
IMF Forecast as of July 2026
IMF Forecast as of October 2026
Change
2026
1.7%
(3.3%)
(1.6%)
2027
5.5%
7.9%
+2.4%
Regarding inflation, the IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate to slow to 1.9% in 2026, compared with 2% in 2025, before rising to 2.2% in 2027.
The fund noted that regional economic forecasts remain affected by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while economic activity is expected to improve in 2027 as production, exports and logistics services return to normal levels.
The IMF expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026, compared with 3.5% in 2025, before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027, amid the continued fallout from disruptions in energy markets.
The report noted that tensions and disruptions affecting global trade and supply chains pose a challenge to the growth outlook. However, improving conditions and the normalization of transportation and supply flows are expected to support economic activity in 2027.
According to Argaam data, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance estimated in its preliminary statement for the 2027 budget that public revenues would reach SAR 1.202 trillion and expenditures SAR 1.392 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SAR 191 billion.
The ministry expects revenues for the current year to reach SAR 1.19 trillion and expenditures SAR 1.435 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SAR 245 billion.
The ministry forecast that the Kingdom’s real GDP would contract by 3.6% in the current year, before growing by 12.8% in 2027 and 3.9% in 2028.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth to 7.9% in 2027, up from its previous forecast of 5.5% issued last July.
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF revised its forecast for the Kingdom’s economy in 2026 to a contraction of 3.3%, compared with its previous forecast of growth of 1.7%.
The report noted that the Saudi economy is less affected than some regional economies by geopolitical disruptions, thanks to diversified energy export routes, which limit the impact of supply and transportation disruptions.
IMF Forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s GDP Growth (%)
Period
IMF Forecast as of July 2026
IMF Forecast as of October 2026
Change
2026
1.7%
(3.3%)
(1.6%)
2027
5.5%
7.9%
+2.4%
Regarding inflation, the IMF expects Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate to slow to 1.9% in 2026, compared with 2% in 2025, before rising to 2.2% in 2027.
The fund noted that regional economic forecasts remain affected by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while economic activity is expected to improve in 2027 as production, exports and logistics services return to normal levels.
The IMF expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026, compared with 3.5% in 2025, before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027, amid the continued fallout from disruptions in energy markets.
The report noted that tensions and disruptions affecting global trade and supply chains pose a challenge to the growth outlook. However, improving conditions and the normalization of transportation and supply flows are expected to support economic activity in 2027.
According to Argaam data, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance estimated in its preliminary statement for the 2027 budget that public revenues would reach SAR 1.202 trillion and expenditures SAR 1.392 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SAR 191 billion.
The ministry expects revenues for the current year to reach SAR 1.19 trillion and expenditures SAR 1.435 trillion, resulting in a deficit of SAR 245 billion.
The ministry forecast that the Kingdom’s real GDP would contract by 3.6% in the current year, before growing by 12.8% in 2027 and 3.9% in 2028.
