JEDDAH — The Regional Center for Climate Change (RCCC) released the latest climate indicators associated with El Niño, suggesting rises in temperatures above normal levels in the coming months. Issued by the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and RCCC, the forecasts indicate climate impacts on the Kingdom during the fall of 2026, including a rise in temperatures above normal levels and an increase in rainfall chances in some areas. The current status of El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — is neutral. As of May 5, 2026, the Niño 3.4 stood at 0.39°C, while the neutral range is between -0.80°C and +0.80 °C. As for sea surface temperatures, the anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is expected to exceed 0.8°C. However, according to the NCM and RCCC, there is an increased likelihood of El Niño conditions developing between May and October. During the month of May, it is expected to rise above 1.1°C; in June, it is forecast to rise above 1.4°C. July will rise over 1.8°C, August 2.3°C, 2.5°C, and October is 2.8°C. Along with rising temperatures, rainfall is expected to affect several regions of the Kingdom. Western Saudi Arabia will have an elevated risk of flooding during the coming autumn season (September, October, and November). Central Saudi Arabia’s effects are expected to be felt across various regions during the upcoming rainy season (2026–2027). Meanwhile,, rainfall amounts in the southwestern highlands may be above average during the upcoming autumn season (2026). Overall average temperatures are expected to rise above normal levels, especially during summer and autumn. At the same time, winter temperatures are expected to be less cold than usual. The RCCC noted that the evolution of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) forecasts naturally entails some uncertainty due to differences among climate models. This highlights the importance of continued monitoring and tracking of El Niño developments, particularly during the spring transition period (February–May), when forecasts are generally less stable.
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