BSF Capital expects Makkah Construction stock to be downgraded from the MSCI Saudi Arabia Standard Index to the Small Cap Index during the November 2026 periodic index review.
However, United International Holding Co. (Tasheel) and Bawan face a high probability of exclusion from the Small Cap Index. Elsewhere, solutions remains a medium-probability candidate for inclusion.
The changes will take effect on Dec. 1, 2026.
In a report, the research firm explained that the expected downgrade of Makkah Construction is due to its total market capitalization of $3.56 billion, based on data as of October 29, 2026, being 13% below the estimated $4.11 billion cutoff required for existing index constituents to remain in the index.
The company does not meet the market capitalization requirement, making a move to the Small Cap Index likely. The potential downgrade is expected to trigger outflows of SAR 796 million from emerging markets funds, partially offset by inflows of approximately SAR 292 million from small-cap funds, it added.
BSF Capital added that there is a very low probability of a downgrade for ADES stock, as its free-float-adjusted market capitalization stands at $1.55 billion, compared to the free-float requirement of $1.38 billion for existing constituents. It noted that a downgrade would result in outflows of approximately SAR 715 million from emerging markets funds, partially offset by inflows of around SAR 263 million from small-cap funds.
The likelihood of Petro Rabigh being included in the Standard Index is very low, following its removal from the Small Cap Index in August 2026. Its free-float-adjusted market capitalization of $1.98 billion is approximately 5% below the estimated $2.07 billion threshold required for new constituents to be included in the index. An inclusion could attract passive investment inflows of around SAR 913 million.
BSF Capital expects United International Holding (Tasheel) and Bawan to be excluded from the Small Cap Index with a high probability, while the likelihood of Arabian Cement exclusion is considered low.
It noted that Tasheel’s market capitalization stood at $410 million, compared to $430 million for Bawan, placing them 17% and 13% below the required retention threshold for existing index constituents, respectively. Arabian Cement’s market capitalization stood at $480 million, putting it below the required threshold in the final days of the data selection period.
The research firm estimated that the resulting investment outflows from the exclusion of these companies would be limited, at approximately $9 million to $11 million per company.
BSF Capital expects solutions to be included in the Small Cap Index with a medium probability, following a decline in its total market capitalization to $5.86 billion, below the estimated $6.16 billion threshold for the Standard Index.
It added that the company’s free-float-adjusted market capitalization stood at $1.10 billion, above the threshold required for inclusion in the Small Cap Index. The expected inclusion could generate investment inflows of approximately SAR 187 million.
The brokerage said that, if all high and medium probability changes take place, it estimates net passive outflows of $103 million (SAR 386 million).
BSF Capital -MSCI Saudi Arabia Standard Index
BSF Capital expects Makkah Construction stock to be downgraded from the MSCI Saudi Arabia Standard Index to the Small Cap Index during the November 2026 periodic index review.
However, United International Holding Co. (Tasheel) and Bawan face a high probability of exclusion from the Small Cap Index. Elsewhere, solutions remains a medium-probability candidate for inclusion.
The changes will take effect on Dec. 1, 2026.
In a report, the research firm explained that the expected downgrade of Makkah Construction is due to its total market capitalization of $3.56 billion, based on data as of October 29, 2026, being 13% below the estimated $4.11 billion cutoff required for existing index constituents to remain in the index.
The company does not meet the market capitalization requirement, making a move to the Small Cap Index likely. The potential downgrade is expected to trigger outflows of SAR 796 million from emerging markets funds, partially offset by inflows of approximately SAR 292 million from small-cap funds, it added.
BSF Capital added that there is a very low probability of a downgrade for ADES stock, as its free-float-adjusted market capitalization stands at $1.55 billion, compared to the free-float requirement of $1.38 billion for existing constituents. It noted that a downgrade would result in outflows of approximately SAR 715 million from emerging markets funds, partially offset by inflows of around SAR 263 million from small-cap funds.
The likelihood of Petro Rabigh being included in the Standard Index is very low, following its removal from the Small Cap Index in August 2026. Its free-float-adjusted market capitalization of $1.98 billion is approximately 5% below the estimated $2.07 billion threshold required for new constituents to be included in the index. An inclusion could attract passive investment inflows of around SAR 913 million.
BSF Capital expects United International Holding (Tasheel) and Bawan to be excluded from the Small Cap Index with a high probability, while the likelihood of Arabian Cement exclusion is considered low.
It noted that Tasheel’s market capitalization stood at $410 million, compared to $430 million for Bawan, placing them 17% and 13% below the required retention threshold for existing index constituents, respectively. Arabian Cement’s market capitalization stood at $480 million, putting it below the required threshold in the final days of the data selection period.
The research firm estimated that the resulting investment outflows from the exclusion of these companies would be limited, at approximately $9 million to $11 million per company.
BSF Capital expects solutions to be included in the Small Cap Index with a medium probability, following a decline in its total market capitalization to $5.86 billion, below the estimated $6.16 billion threshold for the Standard Index.
It added that the company’s free-float-adjusted market capitalization stood at $1.10 billion, above the threshold required for inclusion in the Small Cap Index. The expected inclusion could generate investment inflows of approximately SAR 187 million.
The brokerage said that, if all high and medium probability changes take place, it estimates net passive outflows of $103 million (SAR 386 million).
