Bill Gates warns AI could trigger 20 years of economic and social upheaval

WASHINGTON — Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has warned that artificial intelligence could unleash two decades of economic and social disruption, transforming employment and everyday life even if the technology develops under the most favorable conditions.In an interview with the Decoder podcast published Thursday, Gates, 70, said the transition toward an AI-driven economy would create winners and losers, potentially reshaping labor markets and raising fundamental questions about the role of humans in society.”My big concern is this 20-year transition period, where they’ll have winners and losers and a lot of disruption,” Gates said, warning that societies would have to navigate significant upheaval before potentially entering an era of greater abundance.He emphasized that the 20-year timeframe was an estimate rather than a firm prediction, acknowledging that the transition could unfold more quickly or slowly depending on technological advances and decisions about regulating or slowing AI development.Gates said advances in artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics could eventually enable machines to perform much of the physical labor currently carried out by humans, including constructing homes, producing food and performing surgical procedures.While such developments could dramatically reduce shortages of goods and services, Gates suggested that societies might choose to preserve certain activities for human workers, including childcare, food preparation, artistic pursuits and sports.The billionaire philanthropist highlighted AI’s potential to improve healthcare and agriculture but expressed concern that governments and societies remain insufficiently prepared for the speed of technological change.He called for stronger government oversight and technical safeguards to address emerging threats, particularly AI-enabled cyberattacks and biological risks.Gates argued that responsibility for managing these dangers could not rest solely with technology companies, stressing the need for broader public oversight and collective decision-making.He warned that even under the most optimistic circumstances, the rise of AI could produce one of the most turbulent periods in human history.”I hate being the bearer of concerning news on this, but it’s even worse not to tell people that this is coming. We have choices as humans to make about how we shape it,” Gates said.