WASHINGTON — US President Donald Trump has offered his clearest indication yet that intensified diplomacy could avert another major round of fighting with Iran, in the wake of his party’s disastrous midterm election results.Trump told CNN on Sunday that renewed US military attacks are “highly unlikely” if Tehran makes progress toward an agreement on its nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He also told CBS’ “60 Minutes” that he was “not looking to” escalate the war.Iran and the United States have quietly been negotiating a sensitive agreement that could avert a return to all-out war and open the door to broader talks.But hopes of a deal are being tempered by Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying Sunday that he “wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough.” Trump has also made clear the military option remains on the table.Both sides and Qatar, which is mediating, have revealed little about the discussions even as diplomatic activity has accelerated since Tuesday’s midterms.The Republican losses in the elections have added another dimension to the negotiations, with Vice President JD Vance saying aftewards that the war was among the reasons Republicans lost.Trump told “60 Minutes” that he did not disagree with Vance’s assessment, acknowledging that voters “didn’t like the war.” But he strongly defended the decision to attack Iran, saying that if he had to make the decision again, his answer would be “an emphatic yes.”Iran, meanwhile, has sought to use the election results to press its negotiating position. “American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday.Trump continues to project confidence about the US military position, while Iran has repeatedly threatened to expand the war geographically if it is attacked again.Both sides have several key demands that are on paper non-starters to the other.Trump seeks to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran sees as a matter of national sovereignty.Publicly, Iran is posturing, insisting it will not negotiate with Washington over the program or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz unless seven preconditions are met —including ending the war on “all fronts” and lifting a maritime blockade. The specifics are yet to be made public.Hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium – the material needed to produce a nuclear weapon – remain hidden somewhere in Iran. Tehran has used this stockpile as leverage in its talks with the US. Reports indicate Washington wants the uranium diluted or transferred to another country for safekeeping. It is unclear how far the two sides have progressed on that point.Iran has contended that its nuclear program is for generating energy and not military purposes.For Iran, aside from not ceding ground on its nuclear program or Hormuz, there are key economic goals.As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Iran has found it increasingly difficult to sell crude on global markets under US sanctions. Billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in foreign banks also remain frozen. Washington appears to be weighing relief on these restrictions, a move that could help Tehran ease the severe economic strain on its population amid record inflation.Iran also wants compensation from the US for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his top military commanders by the US and Israel at the start of the war in February.Qatar is mediating between the two sides and circulating a framework document that both Washington and Tehran are amending. The process has been underway for weeks, possibly months, but has intensified in recent days amid fears of fresh strikes.Trump is expected to meet Qatari Prime Minster Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Washington on Monday.So far neither side has been willing to budge on its demands.Before leaving Sunday for the Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the two sides remained far from an agreement.“Right now, it hasn’t been very productive because the Iranian demands are simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.”After successive rounds of open conflict, Tehran’s trust in Washington has almost vanished. Iran has not forgotten that the conflict began while nuclear talks with the US were underway.Iran is concerned that relinquishing any leverage could invite the US and Israel to strike again, leaving it exposed and without effective negotiating tools. If Iran is attacked after opening the Strait of Hormuz and relinquishing control over the enriched uranium, it would be left even more exposed and in a weaker negotiating position.Trump is balancing his ties with Arab partners and Israel – both of which view the Islamic Republic as a threat – and faces scrutiny if he walks away from the war without a major concession from Iran. Tehran also wants to protect its regional proxies and allies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Those militias have fought on behalf of the Islamic Republic regionally and are loyal to Tehran, but have come under existential pressure over the past three years.In September, Iran’s ally in Yemen, the Houthi rebels, launched a lighting offensive capturing another key maritime chokepoint on the Red Sea – Bab Al Mandeb – and giving Tehran potential influence over another waterway. The Houthis have since ramped up attacks on Saudi Arabia in response to Riyadh giving the Yemeni government military support.The US wants Iran not to have the capabilities to build a nuclear weapon, including advanced equipment that could allow it to do so.Iran wants to administer the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor through which Arab states export most of their oil and gas. Control of the waterway would give Tehran decisive influence over what enters and leaves the region. This too would go against the demands of the US, which wants to see open waterways and would be loath to cement one of Iran’s key gains from the war.There have been some attacks but both sides have played them down, a sign perhaps that neither wants to derail talks.Some outlets report that talks between the two sides have moved closer to agreement. The New York Times has indicated that Iran is willing to re-engage in nuclear negotiations.There has been no independent confirmation but any concessions from Iran on its nuclear program, or even willingness to discuss the topic, would be considered a breakthrough.Yet, despite reports of progress, the risk of an all-out war remains real. The US still has a vast military presence in the Middle East that could launch a major assault on Trump’s orders.The US is offering a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran’s nuclear program and has launched a task force aimed at blocking Tehran from using land routes to move advanced weapons and other materials – signs that Washington is intensifying pressure rather than easing it.Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners who believe Tehran has already emerged victorious in its war with the US are seizing on Trump’s midterm losses to demand that he pay a steeper price for an exit from the conflict. Over the past weeks, Iranian military commanders have stepped up their warnings claiming Iran possesses weaponry capable of striking more targets and inflicting even greater damage than before.
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