“If they want to reach an agreement on combating drug trafficking, we are ready.” These were the words of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the onset of the new year, in what appeared to be an attempt to ease rising tensions between Caracas and Washington.
Maduro did not know that these remarks—made only hours earlier—would become his last official statement before a dramatic turning point in his political life.
At a secluded military base, where the echoes of guards’ footsteps reverberated through empty corridors, Maduro and his wife were temporarily in hiding. Suddenly, intense white lights cut through the darkness as a unit of U.S. special forces stormed the bedroom.
Within minutes, the president faced a radically different fate. He was swiftly transferred under heavy guard to a pre-arranged aircraft, later appearing on global media screens in custody aboard a plane bound for Washington, where he would face multiple charges before U.S. courts.
The scene evoked memories of Washington’s 1989 operation against Panama’s former leader Manuel Noriega, when US forces launched a swift and unexpected raid on his military compound.
Beyond its political shockwaves, the development marks a major inflection point for the global oil market, opening the door to multiple scenarios regarding Venezuelan crude supply and international energy prices.
Despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s production has suffered a prolonged and severe decline due to mismanagement, economic collapse, and persistent international sanctions.
According to The Guardian, US President Donald Trump placed notable emphasis on Venezuela’s oil during a press conference last Saturday—far more than on the “war on drugs,” which Washington cited as the official justification for its recent military action.
As geopolitical dynamics in Caracas shift and prospects emerge for external-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector, global energy markets now face several possible paths affecting supply, pricing, and long-term investment.
Three broad scenarios stand out: a short-term disruption marked by volatility, a gradual stabilization and recovery phase, and a longer-term reform-driven transformation of Venezuela’s oil industry.
Pessimistic scenario: Short-term disruption, market volatility
Historically, major geopolitical crises trigger higher risk premiums and price volatility in oil markets—a pattern likely to define the initial phase following the Venezuelan shock.
“If they want to reach an agreement on combating drug trafficking, we are ready.” These were the words of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the onset of the new year, in what appeared to be an attempt to ease rising tensions between Caracas and Washington.
Maduro did not know that these remarks—made only hours earlier—would become his last official statement before a dramatic turning point in his political life.
At a secluded military base, where the echoes of guards’ footsteps reverberated through empty corridors, Maduro and his wife were temporarily in hiding. Suddenly, intense white lights cut through the darkness as a unit of U.S. special forces stormed the bedroom.
Within minutes, the president faced a radically different fate. He was swiftly transferred under heavy guard to a pre-arranged aircraft, later appearing on global media screens in custody aboard a plane bound for Washington, where he would face multiple charges before U.S. courts.
The scene evoked memories of Washington’s 1989 operation against Panama’s former leader Manuel Noriega, when US forces launched a swift and unexpected raid on his military compound.
Beyond its political shockwaves, the development marks a major inflection point for the global oil market, opening the door to multiple scenarios regarding Venezuelan crude supply and international energy prices.
Despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela’s production has suffered a prolonged and severe decline due to mismanagement, economic collapse, and persistent international sanctions.
According to The Guardian, US President Donald Trump placed notable emphasis on Venezuela’s oil during a press conference last Saturday—far more than on the “war on drugs,” which Washington cited as the official justification for its recent military action.
As geopolitical dynamics in Caracas shift and prospects emerge for external-led restructuring of Venezuela’s oil sector, global energy markets now face several possible paths affecting supply, pricing, and long-term investment.
Three broad scenarios stand out: a short-term disruption marked by volatility, a gradual stabilization and recovery phase, and a longer-term reform-driven transformation of Venezuela’s oil industry.
Pessimistic scenario: Short-term disruption, market volatility
Historically, major geopolitical crises trigger higher risk premiums and price volatility in oil markets—a pattern likely to define the initial phase following the Venezuelan shock.
