Saudi banks, in investor presentations released last week, expressed optimism about their 2025 performance over 2024. Their positive outlook is driven by robust lending growth, stable or enhanced special commission margins, and a lower cost-to-income ratio, while the cost of risk (provisions as a percentage of total loans) is expected to remain at similarly low levels as in 2024.
All listed banks that released investor presentations forecast growth in their lending portfolios, driven by strong credit demand from both corporate and individual sectors. The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) topped the list, expecting its lending portfolio to expand by over 15. Alinma Bank, Arab National Bank (ANB), and Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) each forecast growth of approximately 15%.
Saudi Banks Outlook for 2025 (Lending Portfolio)
Bank
Loan Portfolio Growth (YoY)
Al Rajhi Bank
8% – 10%
BSF
10% -12%
Alinma Bank
13% – 17%
Bank AlJazira
10% -12%
ANB
13% – 17%
SNB
10% -12%
SAB
13% – 17%
Riyad Bank
10% -12%
SAIB
Above 15%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Al Rajhi Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF), and Bank AlJazira will likely witness an increase in net interest margins (NIMs) in 2025 year-on-year (YoY). The other banks expect to report either a stable or slight decline in NIMs YoY.
Saudi Banks Outlook for 2025 (NIMs)
Bank
NIMs in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
3.13%
Up between 5 and 15 bps
BSF
3.05%
Up between 0 and 10 bps
Alinma Bank
3.70%
Stable between 3.65% and 3.75%
Bank AlJazira
1.99%
Up between 5 and 10 bps
ANB
3.79%
Stable between 3.75% and 3.85%
SNB
NII Growth between 5% and 10%
SAB
2.85%
Slight Down to 2.70% to 2.80%
Riyad Bank
NII Growth nearly 5%
SAIB
2.68%
Slight Down to 2.45% to 2.55%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Banks expect the cost of credit risk (provisions to total loans)to remain stable or improve this year compared to 2024, supported by high-quality lending portfolios and a favorable macroeconomic environment.
Credit Risk Forecast (2025)
Bank
Cost of Credit in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
0.32%
Stable between 0.30% and 0.40%
BSF
0.58%
Stable between 0.50% and 0.60%
Alinma Bank
0.55%
Up between 0.40% and 0.50%
Bank AlJazira
0.32%
Slight down to between 0.35% and 0.40%
ANB
0.39%
Slight down to between 0.40% and 0.50%
SNB
0.16%
Stable between 0.10% and 0.20%
SAB
0.23%
Slight down to between 0.25% and 0.35%
Riyad Bank
0.53%
Up between 0.30% and 0.40%
SAIB
0.32%
Stable between 0.30% and 0.35%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
All banks that released forecasts anticipated a decline in the cost-to-income ratio. BSF led the projections, expecting a drop of more than two percentage points. This improvement will be driven by net interest income growth outpacing cost increase.
Cost-To-Income Ratio Forecast (2025)
Bank
Cost-To-Income Ratio in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
24.9%
Cost reduction of less than 24.5%
BSF
35.3%
Cost reduction of less than 33.0%
Alinma Bank
30.9%
Cost reduction of less than 30.0%
Bank AlJazira
56.0%
Cost reduction of less than 55.0%
ANB
33.0%
Cost reduction of less than 32.0%
SNB
28.3%
Cost reduction of less than 28.0%
SAB
30.6%
Cost reduction of less than 30.5%
Riyad Bank
30.6%
Cost reduction of less than 30.5%
SAIB
41.5%
Cost reduction of less than 41.5%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Listed Saudi banks expect consolidated net profits of SAR 79.6 billion in 2025, a 13.8% YoY increase. This growth will be driven by the expansion of lending portfolios and the stability of credit costs.
Saudi banks, in investor presentations released last week, expressed optimism about their 2025 performance over 2024. Their positive outlook is driven by robust lending growth, stable or enhanced special commission margins, and a lower cost-to-income ratio, while the cost of risk (provisions as a percentage of total loans) is expected to remain at similarly low levels as in 2024.
All listed banks that released investor presentations forecast growth in their lending portfolios, driven by strong credit demand from both corporate and individual sectors. The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) topped the list, expecting its lending portfolio to expand by over 15. Alinma Bank, Arab National Bank (ANB), and Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) each forecast growth of approximately 15%.
Saudi Banks Outlook for 2025 (Lending Portfolio)
Bank
Loan Portfolio Growth (YoY)
Al Rajhi Bank
8% – 10%
BSF
10% -12%
Alinma Bank
13% – 17%
Bank AlJazira
10% -12%
ANB
13% – 17%
SNB
10% -12%
SAB
13% – 17%
Riyad Bank
10% -12%
SAIB
Above 15%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Al Rajhi Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF), and Bank AlJazira will likely witness an increase in net interest margins (NIMs) in 2025 year-on-year (YoY). The other banks expect to report either a stable or slight decline in NIMs YoY.
Saudi Banks Outlook for 2025 (NIMs)
Bank
NIMs in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
3.13%
Up between 5 and 15 bps
BSF
3.05%
Up between 0 and 10 bps
Alinma Bank
3.70%
Stable between 3.65% and 3.75%
Bank AlJazira
1.99%
Up between 5 and 10 bps
ANB
3.79%
Stable between 3.75% and 3.85%
SNB
NII Growth between 5% and 10%
SAB
2.85%
Slight Down to 2.70% to 2.80%
Riyad Bank
NII Growth nearly 5%
SAIB
2.68%
Slight Down to 2.45% to 2.55%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Banks expect the cost of credit risk (provisions to total loans)to remain stable or improve this year compared to 2024, supported by high-quality lending portfolios and a favorable macroeconomic environment.
Credit Risk Forecast (2025)
Bank
Cost of Credit in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
0.32%
Stable between 0.30% and 0.40%
BSF
0.58%
Stable between 0.50% and 0.60%
Alinma Bank
0.55%
Up between 0.40% and 0.50%
Bank AlJazira
0.32%
Slight down to between 0.35% and 0.40%
ANB
0.39%
Slight down to between 0.40% and 0.50%
SNB
0.16%
Stable between 0.10% and 0.20%
SAB
0.23%
Slight down to between 0.25% and 0.35%
Riyad Bank
0.53%
Up between 0.30% and 0.40%
SAIB
0.32%
Stable between 0.30% and 0.35%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
All banks that released forecasts anticipated a decline in the cost-to-income ratio. BSF led the projections, expecting a drop of more than two percentage points. This improvement will be driven by net interest income growth outpacing cost increase.
Cost-To-Income Ratio Forecast (2025)
Bank
Cost-To-Income Ratio in 2024
Outlook in 2025
Al Rajhi Bank
24.9%
Cost reduction of less than 24.5%
BSF
35.3%
Cost reduction of less than 33.0%
Alinma Bank
30.9%
Cost reduction of less than 30.0%
Bank AlJazira
56.0%
Cost reduction of less than 55.0%
ANB
33.0%
Cost reduction of less than 32.0%
SNB
28.3%
Cost reduction of less than 28.0%
SAB
30.6%
Cost reduction of less than 30.5%
Riyad Bank
30.6%
Cost reduction of less than 30.5%
SAIB
41.5%
Cost reduction of less than 41.5%
Bank Albilad
Not yet published
Listed Saudi banks expect consolidated net profits of SAR 79.6 billion in 2025, a 13.8% YoY increase. This growth will be driven by the expansion of lending portfolios and the stability of credit costs.
