‎Saudi bank profits set to rise in 2026 despite challenges

‎Saudi bank profits set to rise in 2026 despite challenges ‎Saudi bank profits set to rise in 2026 despite challenges

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Saudi listed banks reported combined profits of about SAR 24.75 billion in Q3 2026, up 4.8% from SAR 23.62 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Six banks recorded year-on-year (YoY) profit growth in Q3, led by Bank AlJazira with 17.9% growth, followed by Al Rajhi Bank and Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF), which grew by 11.7% and 11.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, four banks reported profit declines ranging from 0.2% at Alinma Bank to 3.4% at Bank Albilad.

Saudi Banks’ Profit (SAR mln)

Company

Q3 2025

Q3 2026

Change (%)

Bank AlJazira

400.13

471.60

17.86%

Al Rajhi Bank

6360.20

7106.00

11.73%

BSF

1353.00

1509.00

11.53%

Riyad Bank

2687.40

2865.75

6.64%

ANB

1329.46

1351.00

1.62%

SAB

2144.00

2165.00

0.98%

Alinma Bank

1592.02

1588.30

(0.23%)

SNB

6468.66

6450.00

(0.29%)

SAIB

518.41

506.90

(2.22%)

Bank Albilad

766.50

740.20

(3.43%)

Total

23619.78

24753.75

4.80%

Positive Growth, but Earnings Quality Varies

Abdulaziz Alseif, co-founder of Sabeen Investment

Abdulaziz Alseif, co-founder of Sabeen Investment, said Saudi Arabia’s 10 listed banks generated combined net profits of approximately SAR 24.75 billion in Q3 2026, up 4.8% YoY. However, profits declined by around 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

He added that the results reflect continued growth in the banking sector’s profits, albeit at a slower pace than in Q3 2025, amid varying performance among banks and the impact of higher expenses, provisions, and funding costs on some lenders.

Financial analyst Khalid Al-Zaidi

Financial analyst Khalid Al-Zaidi said Saudi banks’ Q3 2026 results were positive, driven by continued growth in profits and income, but the quality and sustainability of that growth varied.

He explained that Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income increased by around 16.7% in the first nine months of the year, while Saudi National Bank’s (SNB) net special commission income rose by approximately 8.3%, reflecting continued growth in financing and investment activity.

Profit growth also varied during 9M 2026. Al Rajhi Bank’s profits rose 13.3%, while SNB and Riyad Bank each grew by 4.6%. ANB’s profit increased by 4.1%, Alinma Bank’s by 4%, and The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) posted more modest growth of around 1.5%.

Al-Zaidi added that quarterly comparisons reveal further differences. Al Rajhi Bank’s profit increased 11.7% YoY in Q3, while Riyad Bank’s rose 6.6% YoY. In contrast, SAIB’s profits fell 2.2% YoY and SNB’s declined 0.3% YoY, despite both banks recording profit growth over 9M 2026.

He stressed that annual profit growth alone is insufficient to assess the strength of results. It is also necessary to determine whether growth stems from core business activity, lower provisions, or exceptional gains that may not be repeated.

Financing and Investment Income Drives Earnings

Alseif said growth in net financing and investment income was the main driver of the banking sector’s profit growth in Q3. This was supported by lending growth and wider financing margins, as funding costs declined faster than lending yields, alongside slower growth in operating expenses across the sector.

However, an increase of more than 50% in credit loss provisions, combined with pressure on non-financing income, limited profit growth, he added.

Al-Zaidi said growth in net financing and investment income, supported by larger financing portfolios and banking fees, was the main earnings driver, although the impact of provisions differed from one bank to another.

Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income rose 16.7% YoY in 9M 2026, compared with 13.3% annual growth in profit. This indicates strong growth in core income, but higher expenses and provisions limited the extent to which that growth translated into net profit.

By comparison, SAIB’s net special commission income increased by just 2% YoY, while its profits grew by 1.5% YoY.

Al-Zaidi emphasized that not every additional riyal of income translates into profit for shareholders. Operating expenses, funding costs, provisions, and Zakat determine how much ultimately reaches the bottom line.

Margins and Provisions Explain Mixed Performance

Alseif attributed the significant differences in banks’ Q3 profit growth to three main factors: varying degrees of financing-margin expansion, differences in credit risk costs, and divergent performance in non-financing income.

He explained that banks with greater exposure to retail banking benefited more from lower interest rates between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026, which helped their margins widen further. Some banks with greater exposure to corporate clients, however, faced margin pressure.

Provisions increased across the sector, but at different rates among banks. Non-financing income declined overall, although some banks recorded steeper decreases while others achieved growth, contributing to the divergence in profit growth.

For his part, Al-Zaidi said differences in core business growth, income diversification, expense control, and credit provisions also explain the varying performance.

He noted that Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income increased by 18.1% YoY in Q3 2026, supporting 11.7% profit growth despite a 49.5% increase in provisions. Riyad Bank’s provisions rose by 25%, while SNB’s increased by 39.8% during the quarter, limiting profit growth despite improved operating income.

Al-Zaidi stressed that a bank’s strength should not be measured solely by the highest profit growth rate, but by its ability to combine core income growth with expense control, sound asset quality, and strong return on equity.

Interest Rates Could Reverse the Trend

Al-Zaidi explained that interest rates affect both sides of a bank’s balance sheet: returns on financing and investments and the cost of deposits and funding.

When interest rates rise, banks can reprice some financing and investments at higher yields. However, funding costs also increase, particularly as customers shift from demand deposits to higher-cost term deposits, he said.

When rates fall, banks may benefit from lower deposit costs, but returns on new or variable-rate financing may also decline. The overall impact, therefore, depends on how quickly assets and liabilities are repriced and on each bank’s balance-sheet composition.

Al-Zaidi also noted that SNB’s net special commission margin stood at 2.93% in 9M 2026 and remained at the same level in Q3. However, it declined by nine basis points QoQ, illustrating that higher commission income does not necessarily translate into wider margins.

For his part, Alseif said lower interest rates between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 helped several Saudi banks widen their financing margins, as deposit costs declined faster than lending yields.

The impact varied across lenders. Banks with greater exposure to retail banking benefited more, while some with a stronger focus on corporate clients faced greater pressure, depending on how quickly they repriced loans and deposits and the composition of their funding, he said.

Alseif noted that the return of interest rate increases toward the end of Q3 had not yet had a material impact on reported results. The effects are expected to emerge in the coming periods, with further increases possible in Q4 and additional hikes during 2027.

This could partially reverse the previous trend. Some retail-focused banks may face greater margin pressure, while certain corporate-focused lenders could benefit. Overall, however, sector-wide margins are expected to come under relative pressure amid higher interest rates, continued competition for deposits, and relatively tight liquidity, according to Al-Saif.

He expects banks to offset some of this pressure through continued lending growth and improved non-financing income in 2027. Nevertheless, Q4 2026 could see some margin compression before other income sources potentially recover next year.

Credit Growth Expected to Continue

Al-Zaidi said credit growth could continue, but its sustainability depends on the economy’s ability to generate genuine demand for financing and on the availability of deposits at reasonable cost, rather than lending expansion alone.

He noted that SAIB’s loans increased by 7.7% YoY, ANB’s by 9.3%, and Alinma Bank’s financing and investments by 12%. SNB’s loans rose 4.6%, while customer deposits grew 4.7%. These figures point to continued expansion in financing activity, although growth rates vary considerably among banks.

Demand for financing is expected to come from companies seeking to fund capital expansion, projects, and investments, as well as from individuals — particularly through mortgage and consumer finance —small and medium-sized enterprises, and projects linked to economic transformation, he added.

Al-Zaidi also stressed that financing should grow in line with deposits and capital, without increasing non-performing loans or credit risk costs.

Alseif said credit growth in Saudi Arabia’s banking sector was sustainable, supported by financing for infrastructure, utilities, energy, real estate, tourism, and manufacturing projects, as well as lending to SMEs and continued growth in mortgage finance, albeit at a slower pace.

He expects credit growth to moderate and balance out in the coming period amid liquidity pressures and higher interest rates, forecasting growth of 4% to 6%.

Do Higher Provisions Signal Declining Asset Quality?

Al-Zaidi said provisions were a key factor in Q3 results, as they can mask some operating strength or magnify their impact on net profit.

Al Rajhi Bank’s provisions rose by 39.5% in 9M 2026, while Alinma Bank’s increased by 25.1%. Both banks attribute part of the increase to growth in financing and investment. Therefore, higher provisions should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of deteriorating asset quality, he said, adding that their growth must be assessed against the expansion and risk profile of each bank’s portfolio.

SAIB, meanwhile, recorded a 2.3% YoY decline in provisions, which the bank attributed to improved credit quality in its financing portfolio. This is a positive signal if the improvement persists and the decline does not simply reflect the timing of provision recognition.

Al-Zaidi also noted that SNB’s provisions amounted to around SAR 3 million in 9M 2026, compared to SAR 93 million in the same period a year earlier. However, provisions in Q3 2026 rose to SAR 323 million from SAR 231 million a year earlier. He said this divergence reflects prior-period impacts on cumulative results and warrants monitoring provision trends in the coming quarters.

“Assessing asset quality requires tracking the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing, provision coverage, the cost of risk, provision growth relative to loan growth, as well as net write-offs, collections, and recoveries of previously written-off financing,” he said.

Al-Zaidi also said higher provisions alone were not sufficient grounds for concern, just as lower provisions should not automatically be considered positive. The key considerations remain portfolio quality, adequate provisions, and borrowers’ ability to meet their obligations.

Alseif said asset quality across Saudi Arabia’s banking sector remained generally stable, despite provisions rising from the low levels recorded in previous periods. He considered a moderate increase in provisions normal amid geopolitical and economic challenges and expects the trend to continue for some time.

Banks’ profitability will likely depend primarily on lending growth and profit margins. Credit growth is expected to continue at a balanced pace, while higher interest rates and liquidity challenges could place some pressure on margins, he added.

Provisions are expected to rise gradually compared with previous periods but remain low by historical standards, said Alseif, emphasizing that the Saudi banking sector continues to have strong fundamentals, despite pressures that warrant monitoring.

Saudi Banks’ Earnings Outlook for 2026

Alseif expects Saudi Arabia’s banking sector to continue posting positive profit growth in 2026, after combined earnings rose about 7% in the first nine months of the year.

The final quarter could see some pressure on profit margins due to higher interest rates, a slight increase in provisions, and slower growth in non-financing income. Lending growth should continue to support profits, alongside a slowdown in operating cost growth, he added.

Alseif also forecasts the sector’s net profit will grow about 5% YoY in 2026.

Meanwhile, Al-Zaidi expects the sector to remain capable of generating solid profits in 2026, although growth rates will vary among banks. In some cases, profit growth may be less consistent than growth in financing income.

He identified three key factors that will shape earnings: growth in financing and investment portfolios and income from banking services; funding costs and commission margins, as higher deposit costs or stronger competition for funding could constrain net income; and provisions and expenses, since any increase in credit risk costs or operating expenses could reduce the contribution of revenue growth to net profits.

At the individual-bank level, Al Rajhi Bank stands out for its momentum in income and earnings growth. SNB, Riyad Bank, Alinma Bank, and ANB also recorded positive profit growth in 9M 2026, although their Q3 performance varied. SAIB, meanwhile, needs to strengthen its quarterly earnings momentum to return to a higher growth rate, Al-Zaidi said.

 

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Saudi listed banks reported combined profits of about SAR 24.75 billion in Q3 2026, up 4.8% from SAR 23.62 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Six banks recorded year-on-year (YoY) profit growth in Q3, led by Bank AlJazira with 17.9% growth, followed by Al Rajhi Bank and Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF), which grew by 11.7% and 11.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, four banks reported profit declines ranging from 0.2% at Alinma Bank to 3.4% at Bank Albilad.

Saudi Banks’ Profit (SAR mln)

Company

Q3 2025

Q3 2026

Change (%)

Bank AlJazira

400.13

471.60

17.86%

Al Rajhi Bank

6360.20

7106.00

11.73%

BSF

1353.00

1509.00

11.53%

Riyad Bank

2687.40

2865.75

6.64%

ANB

1329.46

1351.00

1.62%

SAB

2144.00

2165.00

0.98%

Alinma Bank

1592.02

1588.30

(0.23%)

SNB

6468.66

6450.00

(0.29%)

SAIB

518.41

506.90

(2.22%)

Bank Albilad

766.50

740.20

(3.43%)

Total

23619.78

24753.75

4.80%

Positive Growth, but Earnings Quality Varies

Abdulaziz Alseif, co-founder of Sabeen Investment

Abdulaziz Alseif, co-founder of Sabeen Investment, said Saudi Arabia’s 10 listed banks generated combined net profits of approximately SAR 24.75 billion in Q3 2026, up 4.8% YoY. However, profits declined by around 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

He added that the results reflect continued growth in the banking sector’s profits, albeit at a slower pace than in Q3 2025, amid varying performance among banks and the impact of higher expenses, provisions, and funding costs on some lenders.

Financial analyst Khalid Al-Zaidi

Financial analyst Khalid Al-Zaidi said Saudi banks’ Q3 2026 results were positive, driven by continued growth in profits and income, but the quality and sustainability of that growth varied.

He explained that Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income increased by around 16.7% in the first nine months of the year, while Saudi National Bank’s (SNB) net special commission income rose by approximately 8.3%, reflecting continued growth in financing and investment activity.

Profit growth also varied during 9M 2026. Al Rajhi Bank’s profits rose 13.3%, while SNB and Riyad Bank each grew by 4.6%. ANB’s profit increased by 4.1%, Alinma Bank’s by 4%, and The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) posted more modest growth of around 1.5%.

Al-Zaidi added that quarterly comparisons reveal further differences. Al Rajhi Bank’s profit increased 11.7% YoY in Q3, while Riyad Bank’s rose 6.6% YoY. In contrast, SAIB’s profits fell 2.2% YoY and SNB’s declined 0.3% YoY, despite both banks recording profit growth over 9M 2026.

He stressed that annual profit growth alone is insufficient to assess the strength of results. It is also necessary to determine whether growth stems from core business activity, lower provisions, or exceptional gains that may not be repeated.

Financing and Investment Income Drives Earnings

Alseif said growth in net financing and investment income was the main driver of the banking sector’s profit growth in Q3. This was supported by lending growth and wider financing margins, as funding costs declined faster than lending yields, alongside slower growth in operating expenses across the sector.

However, an increase of more than 50% in credit loss provisions, combined with pressure on non-financing income, limited profit growth, he added.

Al-Zaidi said growth in net financing and investment income, supported by larger financing portfolios and banking fees, was the main earnings driver, although the impact of provisions differed from one bank to another.

Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income rose 16.7% YoY in 9M 2026, compared with 13.3% annual growth in profit. This indicates strong growth in core income, but higher expenses and provisions limited the extent to which that growth translated into net profit.

By comparison, SAIB’s net special commission income increased by just 2% YoY, while its profits grew by 1.5% YoY.

Al-Zaidi emphasized that not every additional riyal of income translates into profit for shareholders. Operating expenses, funding costs, provisions, and Zakat determine how much ultimately reaches the bottom line.

Margins and Provisions Explain Mixed Performance

Alseif attributed the significant differences in banks’ Q3 profit growth to three main factors: varying degrees of financing-margin expansion, differences in credit risk costs, and divergent performance in non-financing income.

He explained that banks with greater exposure to retail banking benefited more from lower interest rates between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026, which helped their margins widen further. Some banks with greater exposure to corporate clients, however, faced margin pressure.

Provisions increased across the sector, but at different rates among banks. Non-financing income declined overall, although some banks recorded steeper decreases while others achieved growth, contributing to the divergence in profit growth.

For his part, Al-Zaidi said differences in core business growth, income diversification, expense control, and credit provisions also explain the varying performance.

He noted that Al Rajhi Bank’s net financing and investment income increased by 18.1% YoY in Q3 2026, supporting 11.7% profit growth despite a 49.5% increase in provisions. Riyad Bank’s provisions rose by 25%, while SNB’s increased by 39.8% during the quarter, limiting profit growth despite improved operating income.

Al-Zaidi stressed that a bank’s strength should not be measured solely by the highest profit growth rate, but by its ability to combine core income growth with expense control, sound asset quality, and strong return on equity.

Interest Rates Could Reverse the Trend

Al-Zaidi explained that interest rates affect both sides of a bank’s balance sheet: returns on financing and investments and the cost of deposits and funding.

When interest rates rise, banks can reprice some financing and investments at higher yields. However, funding costs also increase, particularly as customers shift from demand deposits to higher-cost term deposits, he said.

When rates fall, banks may benefit from lower deposit costs, but returns on new or variable-rate financing may also decline. The overall impact, therefore, depends on how quickly assets and liabilities are repriced and on each bank’s balance-sheet composition.

Al-Zaidi also noted that SNB’s net special commission margin stood at 2.93% in 9M 2026 and remained at the same level in Q3. However, it declined by nine basis points QoQ, illustrating that higher commission income does not necessarily translate into wider margins.

For his part, Alseif said lower interest rates between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 helped several Saudi banks widen their financing margins, as deposit costs declined faster than lending yields.

The impact varied across lenders. Banks with greater exposure to retail banking benefited more, while some with a stronger focus on corporate clients faced greater pressure, depending on how quickly they repriced loans and deposits and the composition of their funding, he said.

Alseif noted that the return of interest rate increases toward the end of Q3 had not yet had a material impact on reported results. The effects are expected to emerge in the coming periods, with further increases possible in Q4 and additional hikes during 2027.

This could partially reverse the previous trend. Some retail-focused banks may face greater margin pressure, while certain corporate-focused lenders could benefit. Overall, however, sector-wide margins are expected to come under relative pressure amid higher interest rates, continued competition for deposits, and relatively tight liquidity, according to Al-Saif.

He expects banks to offset some of this pressure through continued lending growth and improved non-financing income in 2027. Nevertheless, Q4 2026 could see some margin compression before other income sources potentially recover next year.

Credit Growth Expected to Continue

Al-Zaidi said credit growth could continue, but its sustainability depends on the economy’s ability to generate genuine demand for financing and on the availability of deposits at reasonable cost, rather than lending expansion alone.

He noted that SAIB’s loans increased by 7.7% YoY, ANB’s by 9.3%, and Alinma Bank’s financing and investments by 12%. SNB’s loans rose 4.6%, while customer deposits grew 4.7%. These figures point to continued expansion in financing activity, although growth rates vary considerably among banks.

Demand for financing is expected to come from companies seeking to fund capital expansion, projects, and investments, as well as from individuals — particularly through mortgage and consumer finance —small and medium-sized enterprises, and projects linked to economic transformation, he added.

Al-Zaidi also stressed that financing should grow in line with deposits and capital, without increasing non-performing loans or credit risk costs.

Alseif said credit growth in Saudi Arabia’s banking sector was sustainable, supported by financing for infrastructure, utilities, energy, real estate, tourism, and manufacturing projects, as well as lending to SMEs and continued growth in mortgage finance, albeit at a slower pace.

He expects credit growth to moderate and balance out in the coming period amid liquidity pressures and higher interest rates, forecasting growth of 4% to 6%.

Do Higher Provisions Signal Declining Asset Quality?

Al-Zaidi said provisions were a key factor in Q3 results, as they can mask some operating strength or magnify their impact on net profit.

Al Rajhi Bank’s provisions rose by 39.5% in 9M 2026, while Alinma Bank’s increased by 25.1%. Both banks attribute part of the increase to growth in financing and investment. Therefore, higher provisions should not automatically be interpreted as a sign of deteriorating asset quality, he said, adding that their growth must be assessed against the expansion and risk profile of each bank’s portfolio.

SAIB, meanwhile, recorded a 2.3% YoY decline in provisions, which the bank attributed to improved credit quality in its financing portfolio. This is a positive signal if the improvement persists and the decline does not simply reflect the timing of provision recognition.

Al-Zaidi also noted that SNB’s provisions amounted to around SAR 3 million in 9M 2026, compared to SAR 93 million in the same period a year earlier. However, provisions in Q3 2026 rose to SAR 323 million from SAR 231 million a year earlier. He said this divergence reflects prior-period impacts on cumulative results and warrants monitoring provision trends in the coming quarters.

“Assessing asset quality requires tracking the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing, provision coverage, the cost of risk, provision growth relative to loan growth, as well as net write-offs, collections, and recoveries of previously written-off financing,” he said.

Al-Zaidi also said higher provisions alone were not sufficient grounds for concern, just as lower provisions should not automatically be considered positive. The key considerations remain portfolio quality, adequate provisions, and borrowers’ ability to meet their obligations.

Alseif said asset quality across Saudi Arabia’s banking sector remained generally stable, despite provisions rising from the low levels recorded in previous periods. He considered a moderate increase in provisions normal amid geopolitical and economic challenges and expects the trend to continue for some time.

Banks’ profitability will likely depend primarily on lending growth and profit margins. Credit growth is expected to continue at a balanced pace, while higher interest rates and liquidity challenges could place some pressure on margins, he added.

Provisions are expected to rise gradually compared with previous periods but remain low by historical standards, said Alseif, emphasizing that the Saudi banking sector continues to have strong fundamentals, despite pressures that warrant monitoring.

Saudi Banks’ Earnings Outlook for 2026

Alseif expects Saudi Arabia’s banking sector to continue posting positive profit growth in 2026, after combined earnings rose about 7% in the first nine months of the year.

The final quarter could see some pressure on profit margins due to higher interest rates, a slight increase in provisions, and slower growth in non-financing income. Lending growth should continue to support profits, alongside a slowdown in operating cost growth, he added.

Alseif also forecasts the sector’s net profit will grow about 5% YoY in 2026.

Meanwhile, Al-Zaidi expects the sector to remain capable of generating solid profits in 2026, although growth rates will vary among banks. In some cases, profit growth may be less consistent than growth in financing income.

He identified three key factors that will shape earnings: growth in financing and investment portfolios and income from banking services; funding costs and commission margins, as higher deposit costs or stronger competition for funding could constrain net income; and provisions and expenses, since any increase in credit risk costs or operating expenses could reduce the contribution of revenue growth to net profits.

At the individual-bank level, Al Rajhi Bank stands out for its momentum in income and earnings growth. SNB, Riyad Bank, Alinma Bank, and ANB also recorded positive profit growth in 9M 2026, although their Q3 performance varied. SAIB, meanwhile, needs to strengthen its quarterly earnings momentum to return to a higher growth rate, Al-Zaidi said.

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