Banks expect Middle East shipping disruptions to support crude prices and potentially renew inflationary pressures.
Major global banks raised their Brent crude price forecasts this week, driven by persistent shipping disruptions in the Middle East that have tightened oil markets and pushed prices above $100 per barrel. 
Commerzbank on Friday raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel from $75 previously, according to Reuters.
HSBC, meanwhile, said on Tuesday it had revised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $90 and $85 per barrel, respectively, saying markets are adapting to a new reality of persistent partial disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bank of America said in a recent note that it had raised its Brent crude forecast to $83 per barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027, warning that further supply disruptions could push prices toward $120 per barrel.
These revisions came after Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts for the two benchmark crudes, Brent and Nymex, by $5 per barrel, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will persist into next year.
The upward revisions to oil price forecasts indicate that banks expect continued shipping disruptions in the Middle East to tighten supplies and increase the market risk premium, supporting prices in the coming period while threatening a renewed wave of inflationary pressures.
Banks expect Middle East shipping disruptions to support crude prices and potentially renew inflationary pressures.
Major global banks raised their Brent crude price forecasts this week, driven by persistent shipping disruptions in the Middle East that have tightened oil markets and pushed prices above $100 per barrel.
Commerzbank on Friday raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel from $75 previously, according to Reuters.
HSBC, meanwhile, said on Tuesday it had revised its Brent crude price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $90 and $85 per barrel, respectively, saying markets are adapting to a new reality of persistent partial disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bank of America said in a recent note that it had raised its Brent crude forecast to $83 per barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027, warning that further supply disruptions could push prices toward $120 per barrel.
These revisions came after Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts for the two benchmark crudes, Brent and Nymex, by $5 per barrel, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will persist into next year.
The upward revisions to oil price forecasts indicate that banks expect continued shipping disruptions in the Middle East to tighten supplies and increase the market risk premium, supporting prices in the coming period while threatening a renewed wave of inflationary pressures.
