The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 28–29, amid growing uncertainty over the future path of monetary policy. This comes as inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target despite improvements in some price indicators and a recent easing in energy-related inflationary pressures.
Analysts surveyed by Argaam expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting. While rates are likely to remain unchanged in the near term, risks continue to tilt toward tighter monetary policy, particularly if inflationary pressures re-emerge, leaving the possibility of a September rate hike firmly on the table. 
Ahmed Azzam, Head of Research at Equity Group, said that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep rates unchanged. He noted that the July meeting is among the most sensitive of the year, as consensus around the policy decision has become less clear than at previous meetings.
He added that the increased probability of a rate hike in the hours leading up to the decision suggests the outcome is no longer fully priced in and that even a modest change in the policy statement or the voting pattern among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could trigger significant market moves.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on July 28–29, amid growing uncertainty over the future path of monetary policy. This comes as inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target despite improvements in some price indicators and a recent easing in energy-related inflationary pressures.
Analysts surveyed by Argaam expect the Federal Reserve to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its July meeting. While rates are likely to remain unchanged in the near term, risks continue to tilt toward tighter monetary policy, particularly if inflationary pressures re-emerge, leaving the possibility of a September rate hike firmly on the table.
Ahmed Azzam, Head of Research at Equity Group, said that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep rates unchanged. He noted that the July meeting is among the most sensitive of the year, as consensus around the policy decision has become less clear than at previous meetings.
He added that the increased probability of a rate hike in the hours leading up to the decision suggests the outcome is no longer fully priced in and that even a modest change in the policy statement or the voting pattern among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could trigger significant market moves.
