An oil tanker sails through a key maritime route amid heightened regional tensions
Fitch Ratings warned of elevated risks that could prevent the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, expecting oil prices to decline to $70 per barrel by the end of this year if the agreement succeeds and the strait is fully reopened. 
In its report, Fitch said the path to the agreement remains fraught with challenges, warning that political opposition emerging immediately after the details of the deal are disclosed could obstruct its completion. It also highlighted the risk of understandings collapsing if the military conflict between Israel and Lebanon resumes, putting the future of the agreement at stake.
Fitch said Friday’s agreement may fail to address the root causes of regional tensions, leaving the door open to a renewed conflict. Despite the move toward de-escalation, the agency believes the likelihood of US or Israeli military operations against Iran remains significant.
The agency concluded its analysis with oil price forecasts, expecting Brent crude prices to decline to $70 per barrel by Q4 2026, provided a stability scenario materializes and normal oil shipping through the strait resumes.
An oil tanker sails through a key maritime route amid heightened regional tensions
Fitch Ratings warned of elevated risks that could prevent the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, expecting oil prices to decline to $70 per barrel by the end of this year if the agreement succeeds and the strait is fully reopened.
In its report, Fitch said the path to the agreement remains fraught with challenges, warning that political opposition emerging immediately after the details of the deal are disclosed could obstruct its completion. It also highlighted the risk of understandings collapsing if the military conflict between Israel and Lebanon resumes, putting the future of the agreement at stake.
Fitch said Friday’s agreement may fail to address the root causes of regional tensions, leaving the door open to a renewed conflict. Despite the move toward de-escalation, the agency believes the likelihood of US or Israeli military operations against Iran remains significant.
The agency concluded its analysis with oil price forecasts, expecting Brent crude prices to decline to $70 per barrel by Q4 2026, provided a stability scenario materializes and normal oil shipping through the strait resumes.
