SP Global said the duration of any shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz will be key in determining the impact on global oil, gas and petrochemicals markets, including flows, disruptions and prices, and ultimately the effect on rated entities.
In a report, the agency said liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil exporters from GGC countries shipping through the strait would be the most affected.
A closure could also affect Saudi exporters such as Saudi Aramco (unrated) and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) (A+/Stable/A-1), it said.
SP noted that alternative pipelines could help reroute some affected volumes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have options to move crude, including the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the Gulf of Oman.
A temporary closure of the strait could disrupt crude and LNG flows, while a prolonged shutdown would have wider effects on global energy markets and the oil and gas sector.
SP estimates the geopolitical premium on oil prices could range between $5 and $20 a barrel in 2026, while prolonged supply disruptions could restrict access to about 20% of global crude and LNG.
The agency said the duration and scale of the Middle East conflict remain highly unpredictable, creating uncertainty around commodity prices, supply chains, economies and credit conditions.
It added it will assess the economic and credit implications as the situation evolves and adjust its outlook accordingly.
SP Global said the duration of any shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz will be key in determining the impact on global oil, gas and petrochemicals markets, including flows, disruptions and prices, and ultimately the effect on rated entities.
In a report, the agency said liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil exporters from GGC countries shipping through the strait would be the most affected.
A closure could also affect Saudi exporters such as Saudi Aramco (unrated) and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) (A+/Stable/A-1), it said.
SP noted that alternative pipelines could help reroute some affected volumes. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have options to move crude, including the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the Gulf of Oman.
A temporary closure of the strait could disrupt crude and LNG flows, while a prolonged shutdown would have wider effects on global energy markets and the oil and gas sector.
SP estimates the geopolitical premium on oil prices could range between $5 and $20 a barrel in 2026, while prolonged supply disruptions could restrict access to about 20% of global crude and LNG.
The agency said the duration and scale of the Middle East conflict remain highly unpredictable, creating uncertainty around commodity prices, supply chains, economies and credit conditions.
It added it will assess the economic and credit implications as the situation evolves and adjust its outlook accordingly.
